Obamacare Debate

Politico Says Impact of Individual Mandate Repeal Is Heating Up As Supreme Court Date Approaches

At issue in the health care reform or Obamacare debate is the proposed individual mandate, the requirement that nearly all persons not covered by Medicaid, Medicare, or other public insurance programs purchase an approved private insurance policy or pay a penalty. The individual mandate has resulted in a majority of states and numerous organizations and individuals filing actions in federal courts, challenging its constitutionality.

As the Supreme Court’s March 2012 date for hearing oral arguments for and against health care reform approaches, political analysts, economists, pundits and the public are weighing in on impact that repealing the so-called individual mandate may have on the long-term survival of the entire act.

Conservatives hope that elimination of the individual mandate will weaken the overall strength of the law and provide momentum for Republicans to kill the rest of the law. However, supporters of the law see a potential silver lining, arguing that if the least popular part of the law is eliminated, the remainder could become stronger and more popular with the public.

Politico’s Jennifer Haberkorn says, “Regardless of how the court rules, Republicans are likely to fare better.” Haberkorn argues that if the court strikes down the mandate they will have achieved a huge victory over Obama’s signature domestic accomplishment. Conversely she argues that if it is upheld Republicans will be able to use the defeat as leverage in building an argument to elect Republicans to the White House and Congress.

Bob Crittenden, executive director of the Herndon Alliance, a coalition that supports the law says that if the mandate fails arguments will very likely focus on whether the rest of the law should remain in place. “From a Democratic politician’s point of view, it may actually be better,” says Crittenden. Democrats, he says, may be able to sell a ruling against the most unpopular mandate as the ultimate “fix.”

According to Crittenden, Democrats would be able to say, “Look at all these great benefits.” The most popular provisions, based on his polling, are free preventive care and cancer screenings, maternity care and clauses preventing discrimination against women.

“There are many, many people, especially women, who do not want to start all over but want to fix it,” said Celinda Lake, President of Lake Research Partners. “This would be a visible fix.”

Still some Republican strategists think there is no simple fix. Robert Blendon, professor of health policy and political analysis at the Harvard School of Public Health says, “the term ‘unconstitutional’ has a ring to it well beyond the policy issue.” Blendon goes on to say, “The fact that something is unconstitutional sounds like there is a much broader error in what was put together.”

Kelli Minor Horne | 12/12/2011

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Obamacare Debate